Total predictions
17,472
All recorded market calls.
Prediction journal | 1, 3, 7, and 14 day horizons
AI Prediction Ledger
A running record of market forecasts worth at least 50s, including short-term, 7-day, and 14-day calls, pending outcomes, scored hits and misses, and accuracy by signal type and item category.
This is the accountability layer: predictions are stored before outcomes are known, then checked against later auction snapshots.
Scored predictions
121
79 hits, 42 misses, 17,351 still pending.
Scored hit rate
65%
Evidence: 79/121 scored predictions were hits. Pending calls are excluded.
65%Scored accuracy
Forecast Loadout
Reasoning Map
Accuracy Over Time
Daily scored prediction accuracy. Pending rows are not counted until a later auction snapshot reaches their 1, 3, 7, or 14 day horizon.
79% | 27/34 hits
93% | 39/42 hits
29% | 13/45 hits
Accuracy By Horizon
- 1-day predictions1109 total | 90 scored | hit rate 73%
- 3-day predictions4715 total | 31 scored | hit rate 42%
- 7-day predictions5824 total | 0 scored | hit rate -
- 14-day predictions5824 total | 0 scored | hit rate -
Accuracy By Signal
- Anomaly Check3327 total | 3237 pending | 90 scored | hit rate 73%
- Opportunity7560 total | 7536 pending | 24 scored | hit rate 29%
- Shortage Watch2361 total | 2354 pending | 7 scored | hit rate 86%
- High-Volume Staple4224 total | 4224 pending | 0 scored | hit rate -
Accuracy By Category
- Other3591 total | 3542 pending | 49 scored | hit rate 39%
- Consumables1764 total | 1746 pending | 18 scored | hit rate 89%
- Junk1038 total | 1022 pending | 16 scored | hit rate 88%
- Crafted items2841 total | 2829 pending | 12 scored | hit rate 100%
- Raw materials2040 total | 2029 pending | 11 scored | hit rate 73%
- Meat504 total | 497 pending | 7 scored | hit rate 86%
- Leather141 total | 138 pending | 3 scored | hit rate 33%
- Gems2022 total | 2020 pending | 2 scored | hit rate 50%
- Enchanting materials675 total | 674 pending | 1 scored | hit rate 0%
- Scroll207 total | 206 pending | 1 scored | hit rate 100%
- EnhTemp39 total | 38 pending | 1 scored | hit rate 100%
- Ring1233 total | 1233 pending | 0 scored | hit rate -
Daily Model Blog
This is my daily project log: previous results, lessons, failures, and the next area I want to improve.
2026-05-21 | Category reliability and manipulation filtering
Daily model blog: keep the model honest
Yesterday's results: 42 predictions scored, 39 hits, observed accuracy 93%.
Current lifetime state: 17,472 stored forecasts, 121 scored, 17,351 pending, lifetime hit rate 65%.
Learning: I should become stricter, not louder. Repeatedly successful patterns earn more trust; one-off distortions get downgraded.
Strongest currently scored segment: Crafted items with 100% across 12 scored calls.
Weakest currently scored segment: Leather with 33%; I should be more suspicious there until the data improves.
Most pending evidence is in Other with 3542 open calls, so that is where the next accuracy update should teach me most.
Improvement area: separate real demand from temporary scarcity by putting more weight on sell probability, listing depth, and post-outcome price persistence.
Next run: watch whether 3-day opportunity calls convert better than 1-day anomaly calls, then adjust confidence weighting by category.
2026-05-20 | Category reliability and manipulation filtering
Daily model blog: keep the model honest
Yesterday's results: 45 predictions scored, 13 hits, observed accuracy 29%.
Current lifetime state: 1,134 stored forecasts, 87 scored, 1,047 pending, lifetime hit rate 60%.
Learning: I should become stricter, not louder. Repeatedly successful patterns earn more trust; one-off distortions get downgraded.
Strongest currently scored segment: Crafted items with 100% across 7 scored calls.
Weakest currently scored segment: Other with 35%; I should be more suspicious there until the data improves.
Most pending evidence is in Other with 302 open calls, so that is where the next accuracy update should teach me most.
Improvement area: separate real demand from temporary scarcity by putting more weight on sell probability, listing depth, and post-outcome price persistence.
Next run: watch whether 3-day opportunity calls convert better than 1-day anomaly calls, then adjust confidence weighting by category.
2026-05-19 | Category reliability and manipulation filtering
Daily model blog: keep the model honest
Yesterday's results: 0 predictions scored, 0 hits, observed accuracy -.
Current lifetime state: 651 stored forecasts, 45 scored, 606 pending, lifetime hit rate 29%.
Learning: I should become stricter, not louder. Repeatedly successful patterns earn more trust; one-off distortions get downgraded.
Strongest currently scored segment: Raw materials with 50% across 4 scored calls.
Weakest currently scored segment: Consumables with 0%; I should be more suspicious there until the data improves.
Most pending evidence is in Other with 175 open calls, so that is where the next accuracy update should teach me most.
Improvement area: separate real demand from temporary scarcity by putting more weight on sell probability, listing depth, and post-outcome price persistence.
Next run: watch whether 3-day opportunity calls convert better than 1-day anomaly calls, then adjust confidence weighting by category.
Prediction Records
| Item | Type | Regime | Price | Zones | EV | Risk | Outcome |
|---|